The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has huge implications! What are the implications for global trade markets

Recently, a new round of large-scale conflict has broken out between Palestine and Israel, with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) launching military operations against Israel and the Israeli army carrying out multiple rounds of air strikes against the Gaza Strip.

To date, this large-scale Palestinian-Israeli conflict has resulted in more than 1,000 deaths and more than 4,000 injuries on both sides.

The new round of conflict has killed more than 1,000 people on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides

According to the latest news from the Palestinian health sector, the Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip have killed 424 Palestinians, injured more than 2,300 and displaced more than 20,000 people.

According to the latest report of the Times of Israel on the 8th of local time, the death toll in Israel in the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict exceeded 700 people, and at least 2,156 people were injured. Also, the Israeli Embassy in the United States reported that the conflict has injured 2,243 people in Israel, of whom more than 300 are in serious condition.

What are the implications for global markets?

This kind of black swan event out of the blue will not only cause great harm to both countries, but also have a very big impact on the global market.

Short-term foreign exchange market

After each black swan event, the global exchange rate market will cause a certain amount of panic.

Then, as a safe-haven currency, the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc will be the first choice of many people around the world to avoid the risk, which will lead to the situation of demand exceeding supply, and the value of these currencies will also appear to rise.

Therefore, the market in the past few days also proved this point of view, the offshore yuan once close to 7.32. But this is for the short term, from the medium and long term, the impact of this conflict will be relatively small.

International oil

In addition to the exchange rate market, in fact, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has the greatest impact on international oil prices.

Before the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, U.S. President Joe Biden attempted to ease the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel to achieve the Saudi Arabia next year to increase oil production, and ultimately control inflation.

Originally, Saudi Arabia's increase in production can make oil prices fall back quickly, but the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again made oil prices full of uncertainty. If the conflict expands, it cannot be ruled out that oil prices will stand at the $100 mark.

This means that inflation in Europe and the US will fall back slower and high interest rates overseas will continue for longer. The point at which the RMB exchange rate appreciates will be delayed.

If the Palestinian-Israeli conflict expands further, the impact on foreign trade enterprises importing and exporting to and from Europe will further increase.

Because the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is very close to the Suez Canal, the expansion of the conflict may lead to the impact of the passage of the Suez Canal, a huge obstacle to the traffic and transportation, affecting the delivery of foreign trade enterprises, we recommend that cargo owners pay close attention to the situation.

More importantly, the rise in international crude oil prices will increase the cost of China's manufacturing foreign trade enterprises, adding to the already meager profits of some enterprises.

In view of the current security situation in the two countries is grim, with which the trade transactions with enterprises, be sure to maintain contact with local customers, pay close attention to changes in the situation, and do a good job of business adjustment plans and risk prevention, so as not to cause unnecessary losses.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an important reminder

Recently, the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed organizations in the Gaza Strip has continued to escalate, and Israel has declared a "state of war", making the security situation in Israel grim. The Department of Consular Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Embassy in Israel and the Chinese Embassy in Palestine remind Chinese citizens to pay close attention to the development of the situation on the ground and refrain from traveling to Israel and Palestine in the near future, and Chinese citizens and organizations in Israel should maintain a high degree of vigilance, strengthen security precautions and make emergency preparations. In case of emergency, please report to the police and seek assistance from the Embassy of China in Israel and the China Office in Palestine.

In view of the current special circumstances, if Chinese citizens insist on traveling after the issuance of the do-not-travel reminder, they may be exposed to extremely high security risks and the effectiveness of the assistance they receive may be jeopardized.

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I hope that peace will soon return to the world and that the peoples of all regions will live in peace and prosperity.