Cross-border e-commerce 2024 The big variable!

A small research data shows that 60% of sellers said their 2023 revenue declined from the previous year, and some even halved their revenue.

Are times really tough for the cross-border e-commerce industry?

Amazon's data gives the opposite view. Amazon revealed that in the 12 months to September 2023, Chinese sellers saw more than 20% year-on-year growth in product sales on global sites.

This data reflects a situation that is highly representative, as a large percentage of the revenue of most Chinese sellers (including first-tier big sellers such as Anchor Innovations, Zhi Ou, and Safeway) basically comes from Amazon.

Therefore, "volume" is one side of the fact, but "opportunity" is also its other side.

In fact, overseas retail e-commerce is far less competitive than domestic e-commerce, and the share of overseas retail e-commerce (B2C) in the overall retail industry is forecast to be only 12.4% in 2024 (Insider Intelligence data), which is much lower than the share of domestic e-commerce (about 30%).

This means that there is still a lot of room for it to grow, and that space, to a large extent, will be filled by sellers backed by China's strong supply chain.

"All business, can be done again with the Internet" (such as takeaway with Meituan, taxi with DDT), this saying can also be used for cross-border e-commerce: all categories in the country can be done again with cross-border e-commerce in almost all categories.

For this reason, former Alibaba president and Jiayu Capital founder Weizhe believes that "in the field of cross-border e-commerce, all categories have the potential to set off a new wave, and companies with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion or $20 billion will appear in the future at least in the hundreds."

Indeed, the big car of cross-border e-commerce is still roaring, only the growth rate has slipped a bit. Avery Consulting data show that the cross-border e-commerce market CAGR (compound annual growth rate) reached 25.1% in 2017-2022, and the CAGR is expected to reach 16.4% in 2022-2025.

From 25.1% to 16.4%, the growth rate is indeed declining, but it's still growing in the grand scheme of things.

Therefore, as long as there is no major black swan event, cross-border e-commerce is still a gold mine, and its "sustained growth" will be the unchanging theme.

As long as we insist on sitting on this car, the acceleration of the car will let us go far.

In our view, standing at the crossroads of 2024, cross-border e-commerce practitioners should pay attention to at least a few variables: First, the "Chinese and foreign general-purpose" categories to "overseas proprietary" categories of new opportunities; Third, the full hosting model of the supply chain brought about by the changes in overseas; Third, the interest of e-commerce to traditional shelf e-commerce. The impact of hobby e-commerce on traditional shelf e-commerce; IV. Opportunities in emerging markets.

Each of these variables is discussed below.

Variable 1: Shift from "Chinese-foreign generalized" to "overseas localized" categories

In the first half of cross-border e-commerce, "Chinese and foreign general-purpose" categories accounted for most of the products, which have a large market at home, and also have a large market abroad.

For example, the charging head of Anke, the data cable of Green Union, the sofa and shoe cabinet of Zhi Ou, and the shoes and clothes of Zi Bu Bu Jing and Sai Wei, etc. These products now account for the majority of cross-border e-commerce.

These products currently account for the largest proportion of cross-border e-commerce, and sellers are more familiar with them, and have been iterating on features, styles, and technology, running out brands such as Anker (Anker Innovations), Orolay (down jackets), Roborock (Stone Technology sweepers), and Insta360 (Shadow Stone security cameras). We believe that in other categories, China's cross-border e-commerce sellers will also run out more "Anker", and even as Weizhe said, at least run out of 100 companies with a market value of 10 billion.

Now, cross-border e-commerce has entered the second half of the "Chinese and foreign general type" categories prevail, "overseas local type" categories gradually become an important direction.

These products also have a domestic market, but the scale is small, while the foreign market is much larger, such as ice machines, mobile refrigerators, sports cameras and so on. Take ice machine as an example, most of the domestic commercial large-scale ice machine, but the demand for home or personal ice machine is relatively small.

However, portable personal or household ice machines are a growing market in North America.

According to our "Chinese and foreign general-purpose" logic, refrigerators and freezers can cool and make ice, and then get a home ice machine is redundant. However, European and American consumers like cold drinks, if the drinks are frozen directly in the refrigerator, not only the freezing time is very slow, the bottle may still burst, in addition, the ordinary refrigerator, freezer ice-making speed is very slow.

Zhejiang Ningbo Huikang company focused on this opportunity, the development of a portable ice machine can be fast ice, de-icing, ice, the fastest speed of ice for 6 to 8 minutes. Huikang entered the North.

We have also attend Canton Fair. The main products we exhibit are kitchen organizer series (Bathroom Laundry Storage Baskets, Modern Napkin Holder, Kitchen Organizers With Storage Drawer, Trolley Service Shelving Cart)； tabletop series,；home organizer series and bathroom series products.

In order to cope with the ever-changing foreign trade situation, our company constantly develops new customers and new products. With a positive and innovative attitude, we lead the industry in innovation.